PokerTurn Continuation Betting
At this stage, most players at low or medium stakes have a certain level of competence. They know that they should raise pre-flop, and that they should usually bet the flop. What happens after that stage can be a bit of a mystery however!
A common trap that players fall into is playing too predictably. A normal line is to raise pre-flop, bet the flop and then check on the turn if a player has nothing, and to bet if he has a real hand. Anyone paying attention will realise that a check on the turn signifies a weak hand. What this means is that they will get players floating them (by calling with next to nothing) or calling you with mediocre hands, knowing that you will leak information to them on the next round of betting, allowing them to play perfectly.
As should be obvious, it is important to mix up your play so that your actions do not give away the strength of your hand. So from time-to-time you should check if you have an overpair; and it is ever more important to bet sometimes when you have nothing. Before deciding to bet though, you need to think about a few things.
As I mentioned in my continuation betting article, the texture of the board is very important. This is even more so on the turn. One of the reasons that continuation betting is so profitable on the flop is that 2/3 of the time your opponent will not hold a pair. This is not true on the turn. To put it simply, on the flop before you make your continuation bet, your opponents range is very wide and contains hands he cannot possibly call a bet with. Once he calls a bet on the flop, his range gets a lot stronger, so you should fire far less turn continuation bets.
Before you bet, you should think about a few key conditions:
First of all, is your opponent capable of laying down a medium strength hand? A lot of loose and bad players will always call a bet on the turn if they called a bet on the flop. Obviously it is unwise to bet against them (although your ace high will sometimes be good!)
Secondly, does the board texture indicate he might have a weak hand? If your opponent called a bet on an A27r board, it is very likely he has an ace (or a set), so it is normally a bad idea to continue on this board. If the board is KQ5, a bet is much more likely to succeed, as he may have JT, any queen or some type of gutshot, which he will only call one bet with.
Thirdly, what is your image like? If you have a bad image it is unwise to attempt any type of bluff. A great time to bet the turn is if the last time you were in a similar position with this player you gave up and checked. This will signify to the player that you play very predictably on the turn, and so your turn bet here must mean you are strong.
Fourthly, if your flop continuation bet is called in more than one spot, you should fire a turn bluff very rarely (or basically never without a good read on both your opponents).
Because your opponent’s range gets tighter each time he calls a bet, you should fire bluffs on each street to a much reduced degree. When I’m playing well I fire a lot of continuation bets, turn continuation bets (when heads-up and against a tight player) around 20 - 30% of the time, and river bluffs hardly ever. If a player has called a bet pre-flop, on the flop and on the turn, he has shown a significant amount of strength, and it would be rare that attempting a final barrel is wise.
Glossary:
r (as in A27r) = rainbow (no matching suits)
T (as in JT) = ten
Daragh Thomas